feat(provenance): membrane receipts generator derived from the verdict ledger (age-wedge-all-in-dyr0.6)

2026-09-14 15:08:13 +08:00 · 2026-07-01 16:38:42 -04:00
parent 43699ddca6
commit 1cb06efb64
7 changed files with 890 additions and 0 deletions
@@ -109,6 +109,8 @@ The whole loop runs in a plain session. No daemon, no scheduler, no cloud. For a

 **Proven:** independent verification that records a verdict, and a durable, tamper-evident record of it. A change isn't done until something that didn't write it checks it, and that verdict is bound into the provenance ledger. No verdict, not done.

+The receipts are public: [membrane receipts](docs/evidence/membrane-receipts.md) — every number derived straight from the verdict ledger, none hand-written.
+
 **Still measuring:** whether the accumulated corpus makes the next session measurably better. We won't claim it until the numbers say so ([ADR-0004](docs/adr/ADR-0004-corpus-moat-unproven-position-on-the-system.md), [ADR-0011](docs/adr/ADR-0011-escape-corpus-compounding-unproven-structural-starvation.md)).

 AgentOps proves the work. It doesn't write the code; your agent still does that, and the cross-checks cost tokens. The `.agents/` folder is plain markdown your agents keep up as they go.
@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
+# Membrane receipts
+
+> Auto-generated by `scripts/gen-membrane-receipts.sh` from
+> [`docs/provenance/ledger.jsonl`](../provenance/ledger.jsonl). Every number below is derived
+> from the ledger — nothing is hand-written. The generator refuses to render
+> if `ao provenance verify` reports a broken or tampered hash chain.
+> Machine twin: [`docs/releases/membrane-receipts.json`](../releases/membrane-receipts.json).
+
+Generated: 2026-07-01T20:53:18Z
+
+Ledger tip hash: `1994cc2712127361648fb29a7c3c0b8abd5df9dece1ff882c8becfaef0d390ae` · chain verified: true (`ao provenance verify`)
+
+## The numbers
+
+| Metric | Value |
+|---|---|
+| Ledger records | 213 |
+| Verdict events (verdict → commit) | 190 |
+| Bead → commit edges | 23 |
+| Distinct beads reviewed | 169 |
+| Distinct commits reviewed | 172 |
+| CONFIRMED verdicts | 185 |
+| REFUTED verdicts | 4 |
+| ESCALATE verdicts | 1 |
+| REFUTED-then-fixed arcs (caught defects) | 3 |
+| REFUTED without a recorded fix | 1 |
+| Escape-tagged ledger records | 0 |
+| Time range | 2026-06-13T23:55:06Z → 2026-07-01T20:40:41Z |
+
+A REFUTED-then-fixed arc is a defect the membrane caught: an independent
+reviewer refuted the change on one commit, and a later verdict on a
+subsequent commit for the same bead came back CONFIRMED.
+
+## Escapes
+
+No escape-tagged records exist in this ledger. Absence of records is evidence, not proof, of absence.
+
+## Reviewer family mix
+
+Not recorded in this ledger schema (v1 records carry no reviewer-family field).
+
+## Exemplar catches (from REFUTED ledger entries)
+
+- **ag-721** — REFUTED on `cafef00` (commit no longer in current history — predates a rewrite) at 2026-06-18T01:38:29Z (`pawl-verdict ag-721 disposition=REFUTED`) → no CONFIRMED follow-up recorded in this ledger
+- **age-standing-pawl-service-ml8.7** — REFUTED on `7c3ff9a` at 2026-06-23T20:59:51Z (`pawl-verdict age-standing-pawl-service-ml8.7 disposition=REFUTED`) → fixed: CONFIRMED on `0bb3dc3` at 2026-06-23T21:19:35Z
+- **age-standing-pawl-service-ml8.7** — REFUTED on `114b35c` at 2026-06-23T21:09:28Z (`pawl-verdict age-standing-pawl-service-ml8.7 disposition=REFUTED`) → fixed: CONFIRMED on `0bb3dc3` at 2026-06-23T21:19:35Z
+- **age-rhlx** — REFUTED on `02230bb` at 2026-06-27T01:08:25Z (`pawl-verdict age-rhlx disposition=REFUTED`) → fixed: CONFIRMED on `950a925` at 2026-06-27T01:14:33Z
+
+SHAs not marked otherwise resolve in this repo via `git show <sha>`; marked ones are honest ledger history whose commits were rewritten away.
+Re-running the generator against the same ledger reproduces this page byte-for-byte
+(modulo the Generated line).
@@ -0,0 +1,144 @@
+{
+  "schema": "agentops-membrane-receipts.v1",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-01T20:53:18Z",
+  "source": {
+    "ledger": "docs/provenance/ledger.jsonl",
+    "records": 213,
+    "tip_hash": "1994cc2712127361648fb29a7c3c0b8abd5df9dece1ff882c8becfaef0d390ae",
+    "chain_verified": true,
+    "verifier": "ao provenance verify"
+  },
+  "totals": {
+    "ledger_records": 213,
+    "verdict_events": 190,
+    "bead_commit_edges": 23,
+    "distinct_beads_reviewed": 169,
+    "distinct_commits_reviewed": 172
+  },
+  "dispositions": {
+    "CONFIRMED": 185,
+    "REFUTED": 4,
+    "other": {
+      "ESCALATE": 1
+    }
+  },
+  "caught_defects": {
+    "refuted_then_fixed": 3,
+    "refuted_without_recorded_fix": 1,
+    "arcs": [
+      {
+        "bead": "ag-721",
+        "refuted_commit": "cafef00dbabe1234",
+        "refuted_commit_short": "cafef00",
+        "refuted_ts": "2026-06-18T01:38:29Z",
+        "evidence": "pawl-verdict ag-721 disposition=REFUTED",
+        "fixed_by": null
+      },
+      {
+        "bead": "age-standing-pawl-service-ml8.7",
+        "refuted_commit": "7c3ff9a933ed1e8176e15ddb86db7e497380f853",
+        "refuted_commit_short": "7c3ff9a",
+        "refuted_ts": "2026-06-23T20:59:51Z",
+        "evidence": "pawl-verdict age-standing-pawl-service-ml8.7 disposition=REFUTED",
+        "fixed_by": {
+          "commit": "0bb3dc3662dc943997053ee3feed52300620efb3",
+          "commit_short": "0bb3dc3",
+          "ts": "2026-06-23T21:19:35Z"
+        }
+      },
+      {
+        "bead": "age-standing-pawl-service-ml8.7",
+        "refuted_commit": "114b35c6d80a3b5c3ff3d1082d2f4a7293539cc3",
+        "refuted_commit_short": "114b35c",
+        "refuted_ts": "2026-06-23T21:09:28Z",
+        "evidence": "pawl-verdict age-standing-pawl-service-ml8.7 disposition=REFUTED",
+        "fixed_by": {
+          "commit": "0bb3dc3662dc943997053ee3feed52300620efb3",
+          "commit_short": "0bb3dc3",
+          "ts": "2026-06-23T21:19:35Z"
+        }
+      },
+      {
+        "bead": "age-rhlx",
+        "refuted_commit": "02230bb3b59041ece7857423bd54adeaa2cd150c",
+        "refuted_commit_short": "02230bb",
+        "refuted_ts": "2026-06-27T01:08:25Z",
+        "evidence": "pawl-verdict age-rhlx disposition=REFUTED",
+        "fixed_by": {
+          "commit": "950a925cfef5a18bf2f9b8b7e0674617a08e4c53",
+          "commit_short": "950a925",
+          "ts": "2026-06-27T01:14:33Z"
+        }
+      }
+    ]
+  },
+  "escapes": {
+    "ledger_escape_records": 0,
+    "entries": [],
+    "note": "count of escape-tagged records in this ledger; absence of records is evidence, not proof, of absence"
+  },
+  "reviewer_families": {
+    "recorded_in_ledger": false,
+    "mix": {}
+  },
+  "time_range": {
+    "first": "2026-06-13T23:55:06Z",
+    "last": "2026-07-01T20:40:41Z"
+  },
+  "exemplar_catches": [
+    {
+      "bead": "ag-721",
+      "refuted_commit": "cafef00dbabe1234",
+      "refuted_commit_short": "cafef00",
+      "refuted_ts": "2026-06-18T01:38:29Z",
+      "evidence": "pawl-verdict ag-721 disposition=REFUTED",
+      "fixed_by": null,
+      "refuted_commit_in_history": false
+    },
+    {
+      "bead": "age-standing-pawl-service-ml8.7",
+      "refuted_commit": "7c3ff9a933ed1e8176e15ddb86db7e497380f853",
+      "refuted_commit_short": "7c3ff9a",
+      "refuted_ts": "2026-06-23T20:59:51Z",
+      "evidence": "pawl-verdict age-standing-pawl-service-ml8.7 disposition=REFUTED",
+      "fixed_by": {
+        "commit": "0bb3dc3662dc943997053ee3feed52300620efb3",
+        "commit_short": "0bb3dc3",
+        "ts": "2026-06-23T21:19:35Z",
+        "commit_in_history": true
+      },
+      "refuted_commit_in_history": true
+    },
+    {
+      "bead": "age-standing-pawl-service-ml8.7",
+      "refuted_commit": "114b35c6d80a3b5c3ff3d1082d2f4a7293539cc3",
+      "refuted_commit_short": "114b35c",
+      "refuted_ts": "2026-06-23T21:09:28Z",
+      "evidence": "pawl-verdict age-standing-pawl-service-ml8.7 disposition=REFUTED",
+      "fixed_by": {
+        "commit": "0bb3dc3662dc943997053ee3feed52300620efb3",
+        "commit_short": "0bb3dc3",
+        "ts": "2026-06-23T21:19:35Z",
+        "commit_in_history": true
+      },
+      "refuted_commit_in_history": true
+    },
+    {
+      "bead": "age-rhlx",
+      "refuted_commit": "02230bb3b59041ece7857423bd54adeaa2cd150c",
+      "refuted_commit_short": "02230bb",
+      "refuted_ts": "2026-06-27T01:08:25Z",
+      "evidence": "pawl-verdict age-rhlx disposition=REFUTED",
+      "fixed_by": {
+        "commit": "950a925cfef5a18bf2f9b8b7e0674617a08e4c53",
+        "commit_short": "950a925",
+        "ts": "2026-06-27T01:14:33Z",
+        "commit_in_history": true
+      },
+      "refuted_commit_in_history": true
+    }
+  ],
+  "unresolvable_shas": [
+    "cafef00"
+  ]
+}
@@ -0,0 +1,97 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env bash
+# check-membrane-receipts-freshness.sh — warn when the membrane receipts page
+# has drifted stale behind the provenance ledger.
+#
+# The receipts page (docs/evidence/membrane-receipts.md) is generated from
+# docs/provenance/ledger.jsonl by scripts/gen-membrane-receipts.sh. This check
+# WARNS when the page's generated-at timestamp is more than 30 days older
+# than the ledger tip entry's timestamp (or when the page is missing).
+#
+# Posture: WARN-ONLY by default (exit 0 with a warning). Pass --strict
+# (or AGENTOPS_RECEIPTS_FRESHNESS_STRICT=1) to exit non-zero on staleness.
+#
+# Exit codes:
+#   0 = receipts fresh, or warn-only with stale/missing receipts
+#   1 = --strict and receipts are stale/missing
+#   2 = script error (missing ledger, unparseable timestamps, bad invocation)
+
+set -uo pipefail
+
+REPO_ROOT="$(git rev-parse --show-toplevel 2>/dev/null || pwd)"
+LEDGER="${PROVENANCE_LEDGER:-$REPO_ROOT/docs/provenance/ledger.jsonl}"
+RECEIPTS="${RECEIPTS_MD:-$REPO_ROOT/docs/evidence/membrane-receipts.md}"
+STRICT="${AGENTOPS_RECEIPTS_FRESHNESS_STRICT:-0}"
+MAX_AGE_DAYS=30
+
+while [ $# -gt 0 ]; do
+  case "$1" in
+    --strict) STRICT=1 ;;
+    -h|--help)
+      sed -n '2,/^$/p' "$0" | sed 's/^# \{0,1\}//'
+      exit 0
+      ;;
+    *)
+      echo "check-membrane-receipts-freshness: unknown argument: $1" >&2
+      exit 2
+      ;;
+  esac
+  shift
+done
+
+fail_or_warn() {
+  local msg="$1"
+  if [ "$STRICT" = "1" ]; then
+    echo "check-membrane-receipts-freshness: FAIL — $msg"
+    echo "  fix: run scripts/gen-membrane-receipts.sh"
+    exit 1
+  fi
+  echo "check-membrane-receipts-freshness: WARN — $msg"
+  echo "  fix: run scripts/gen-membrane-receipts.sh"
+  exit 0
+}
+
+# Portable ISO-8601 (UTC, ...Z) → epoch seconds: GNU date first, BSD fallback.
+iso_to_epoch() {
+  local ts="$1"
+  if date -u -d "$ts" +%s 2>/dev/null; then
+    return 0
+  fi
+  date -j -u -f "%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ" "$ts" +%s 2>/dev/null
+}
+
+if [ ! -f "$LEDGER" ]; then
+  echo "check-membrane-receipts-freshness: FAIL — ledger missing at $LEDGER" >&2
+  exit 2
+fi
+
+TIP_TS="$(grep -o '"ts":"[^"]*"' "$LEDGER" | tail -1 | cut -d'"' -f4)"
+if [ -z "$TIP_TS" ]; then
+  echo "check-membrane-receipts-freshness: FAIL — could not read tip ts from $LEDGER" >&2
+  exit 2
+fi
+
+if [ ! -f "$RECEIPTS" ]; then
+  fail_or_warn "receipts page missing at $RECEIPTS (ledger tip: $TIP_TS)"
+fi
+
+GEN_TS="$(grep -m1 '^Generated: ' "$RECEIPTS" | cut -d' ' -f2)"
+if [ -z "$GEN_TS" ]; then
+  fail_or_warn "receipts page at $RECEIPTS has no 'Generated: <ts>' line"
+fi
+
+TIP_EPOCH="$(iso_to_epoch "$TIP_TS")" || TIP_EPOCH=""
+GEN_EPOCH="$(iso_to_epoch "$GEN_TS")" || GEN_EPOCH=""
+if [ -z "$TIP_EPOCH" ] || [ -z "$GEN_EPOCH" ]; then
+  echo "check-membrane-receipts-freshness: FAIL — could not parse timestamps (tip=$TIP_TS gen=$GEN_TS)" >&2
+  exit 2
+fi
+
+AGE_SECONDS=$((TIP_EPOCH - GEN_EPOCH))
+MAX_AGE_SECONDS=$((MAX_AGE_DAYS * 86400))
+
+if [ "$AGE_SECONDS" -gt "$MAX_AGE_SECONDS" ]; then
+  fail_or_warn "receipts page is $((AGE_SECONDS / 86400)) day(s) older than the ledger tip (limit: ${MAX_AGE_DAYS}d; generated $GEN_TS, tip $TIP_TS)"
+fi
+
+echo "check-membrane-receipts-freshness: PASS (receipts generated $GEN_TS, ledger tip $TIP_TS)"
+exit 0
@@ -0,0 +1,274 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env bash
+# gen-membrane-receipts.sh — derive the public membrane-receipts proof page
+# from the provenance ledger (docs/provenance/ledger.jsonl).
+#
+# Every number on the page is computed from the ledger; NOTHING is
+# hand-written. Outputs:
+#   docs/evidence/membrane-receipts.md    (human page)
+#   docs/releases/membrane-receipts.json  (machine twin for claim citations)
+#
+# FAIL-CLOSED HONESTY: before rendering anything, this script runs
+# `ao provenance verify` (the existing tamper-detection surface) against the
+# ledger and REFUSES to render (nonzero exit, nothing written) when the
+# hash chain does not verify. Chain verification is NOT reimplemented here.
+#
+# Determinism: output is byte-stable for the same ledger, modulo the single
+# generated-at timestamp (one line in the .md, one field in the .json).
+#
+# Env overrides (used by tests):
+#   PROVENANCE_LEDGER  ledger path (must be <root>/docs/provenance/ledger.jsonl)
+#   RECEIPTS_MD        output markdown path
+#   RECEIPTS_JSON      output json path
+#   AO_BIN             ao binary to use (else PATH, else build from cli/)
+#
+# Exit codes:
+#   0 = receipts rendered
+#   1 = REFUSED: ledger chain verification failed (nothing written)
+#   2 = script error (missing ledger, missing jq, bad layout)
+
+set -uo pipefail
+
+REPO_ROOT="$(git rev-parse --show-toplevel 2>/dev/null || pwd)"
+LEDGER="${PROVENANCE_LEDGER:-$REPO_ROOT/docs/provenance/ledger.jsonl}"
+OUT_MD="${RECEIPTS_MD:-$REPO_ROOT/docs/evidence/membrane-receipts.md}"
+OUT_JSON="${RECEIPTS_JSON:-$REPO_ROOT/docs/releases/membrane-receipts.json}"
+AO_BIN="${AO_BIN:-}"
+
+die() {
+  echo "gen-membrane-receipts: ERROR — $*" >&2
+  exit 2
+}
+
+command -v jq >/dev/null 2>&1 || die "jq is required"
+[ -f "$LEDGER" ] || die "ledger not found at $LEDGER"
+
+# `ao provenance verify` resolves the ledger relative to a repo root (a dir
+# holding docs/ + schemas/, or a .git). To reuse it — never reimplement the
+# chain check — the ledger must live at the canonical relative path.
+case "$LEDGER" in
+  */docs/provenance/ledger.jsonl) LEDGER_ROOT="${LEDGER%/docs/provenance/ledger.jsonl}" ;;
+  *) die "ledger must live at <root>/docs/provenance/ledger.jsonl so 'ao provenance verify' can check it (got: $LEDGER)" ;;
+esac
+
+# Resolve the ao binary: explicit override, then PATH, then build from cli/.
+if [ -z "$AO_BIN" ]; then
+  if command -v ao >/dev/null 2>&1; then
+    AO_BIN="$(command -v ao)"
+  else
+    AO_BIN="$(mktemp -d)/ao-receipts"
+    echo "gen-membrane-receipts: ao not on PATH; building $AO_BIN" >&2
+    (cd "$REPO_ROOT/cli" && go build -o "$AO_BIN" ./cmd/ao) || die "failed to build ao from cli/"
+  fi
+fi
+[ -x "$AO_BIN" ] || die "ao binary not executable: $AO_BIN"
+
+# ---- FAIL-CLOSED GATE: refuse to render on a broken/tampered chain --------
+VERIFY_JSON="$(cd "$LEDGER_ROOT" && "$AO_BIN" provenance verify --json 2>&1)"
+VERIFY_STATUS=$?
+if [ "$VERIFY_STATUS" -ne 0 ]; then
+  echo "gen-membrane-receipts: REFUSING to render — ledger chain verification FAILED" >&2
+  echo "  ledger: $LEDGER" >&2
+  echo "  verifier: $AO_BIN provenance verify" >&2
+  echo "$VERIFY_JSON" | sed 's/^/  /' >&2
+  echo "  A receipts page derived from an unverifiable ledger would be fabricated evidence." >&2
+  exit 1
+fi
+
+VERIFIED_COUNT="$(printf '%s\n' "$VERIFY_JSON" | jq -r '.RecordCount' 2>/dev/null || echo "")"
+LEDGER_COUNT="$(jq -s 'length' "$LEDGER")"
+if [ -z "$VERIFIED_COUNT" ] || [ "$VERIFIED_COUNT" != "$LEDGER_COUNT" ]; then
+  die "verifier saw $VERIFIED_COUNT record(s) but the ledger at $LEDGER has $LEDGER_COUNT — refusing (verify may have checked a different file)"
+fi
+
+GENERATED_AT="$(date -u +%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ)"
+TIP_HASH="$(jq -rs 'last | .hash' "$LEDGER")"
+
+# ---- Derive every number from the ledger (single jq pass) -----------------
+STATS_JSON="$(jq -s \
+  --arg generated_at "$GENERATED_AT" \
+  --arg tip_hash "$TIP_HASH" '
+  def bead_of:
+    ((.evidence_ref // "" | capture("^pawl-verdict (?<b>.+) disposition=[A-Za-z]+$")? | .b)
+     // (.from_id | tostring | split("@")[0]));
+  def disp_of:
+    ((.evidence_ref // "" | capture("disposition=(?<d>[A-Za-z]+)")? | .d) // "UNRECORDED");
+
+  . as $all
+  | [ to_entries[]
+      | select(.value.from_type == "verdict")
+      | { i: .key,
+          sha: (.value.to_id | tostring),
+          short: (.value.to_id | tostring | .[0:7]),
+          ts: .value.ts,
+          bead: (.value | bead_of),
+          disp: (.value | disp_of),
+          evidence: .value.evidence_ref } ] as $V
+  | [ $V[] | select(.disp == "REFUTED") | . as $r
+      | ([ $V[] | select(.bead == $r.bead and .i > $r.i and .disp == "CONFIRMED") ] | first) as $f
+      | { bead: $r.bead,
+          refuted_commit: $r.sha,
+          refuted_commit_short: $r.short,
+          refuted_ts: $r.ts,
+          evidence: $r.evidence,
+          fixed_by: (if $f == null then null
+                     else { commit: $f.sha, commit_short: $f.short, ts: $f.ts } end) } ] as $refuted
+  | [ $all[] | select(
+        (((.relation // "") + " " + (.evidence_ref // "") + " " + (.from_type // ""))
+         | test("escape"; "i")) ) ] as $esc
+  | [ $all[] | (.reviewer_family // .reviewer // .family // empty) ] as $fams
+  | ([ $V[].disp ] | group_by(.) | map({ key: .[0], value: length }) | from_entries) as $disp
+  | { schema: "agentops-membrane-receipts.v1",
+      generated_at: $generated_at,
+      source: {
+        ledger: "docs/provenance/ledger.jsonl",
+        records: ($all | length),
+        tip_hash: $tip_hash,
+        chain_verified: true,
+        verifier: "ao provenance verify"
+      },
+      totals: {
+        ledger_records: ($all | length),
+        verdict_events: ($V | length),
+        bead_commit_edges: ([ $all[] | select(.relation == "wasGeneratedBy") ] | length),
+        distinct_beads_reviewed: ([ $V[].bead ] | unique | length),
+        distinct_commits_reviewed: ([ $V[].sha ] | unique | length)
+      },
+      dispositions: {
+        CONFIRMED: ($disp.CONFIRMED // 0),
+        REFUTED: ($disp.REFUTED // 0),
+        other: ($disp | to_entries
+                      | map(select(.key != "CONFIRMED" and .key != "REFUTED"))
+                      | sort_by(.key) | from_entries)
+      },
+      caught_defects: {
+        refuted_then_fixed: ([ $refuted[] | select(.fixed_by != null) ] | length),
+        refuted_without_recorded_fix: ([ $refuted[] | select(.fixed_by == null) ] | length),
+        arcs: $refuted
+      },
+      escapes: {
+        ledger_escape_records: ($esc | length),
+        entries: [ $esc[] | { from_id, to_id, relation, evidence_ref, ts } ],
+        note: "count of escape-tagged records in this ledger; absence of records is evidence, not proof, of absence"
+      },
+      reviewer_families: {
+        recorded_in_ledger: (($fams | length) > 0),
+        mix: (if ($fams | length) > 0
+              then ($fams | group_by(.) | map({ key: .[0], value: length }) | from_entries)
+              else {} end)
+      },
+      time_range: {
+        first: ([ $all[].ts ] | sort | first),
+        last: ([ $all[].ts ] | sort | last)
+      },
+      exemplar_catches: ($refuted | .[0:10])
+    }' "$LEDGER")" || die "jq derivation failed"
+
+# ---- Verify exemplar SHAs against the repo's CURRENT history (honesty bound:
+# a ledger record can reference a commit rewritten out of history; never claim
+# git-show reproducibility for a sha that no longer resolves). Derived, not assumed.
+LEDGER_GIT_DIR="$(dirname "$LEDGER")"
+UNRESOLVABLE="$(printf '%s\n' "$STATS_JSON" \
+  | jq -r '[ .exemplar_catches[] | .refuted_commit_short, (.fixed_by.commit_short // empty) ] | unique | .[]' \
+  | while IFS= read -r sha; do
+      [ -n "$sha" ] || continue
+      if ! git -C "$LEDGER_GIT_DIR" rev-parse --verify --quiet "${sha}^{commit}" >/dev/null 2>&1; then
+        printf '%s\n' "$sha"
+      fi
+    done | jq -R . | jq -s .)" || die "sha verification failed"
+STATS_JSON="$(printf '%s\n' "$STATS_JSON" | jq --argjson miss "$UNRESOLVABLE" '
+  .unresolvable_shas = $miss
+  | .exemplar_catches = [ .exemplar_catches[]
+      | .refuted_commit_in_history = (([.refuted_commit_short] - $miss) | length > 0)
+      | (if .fixed_by != null
+         then .fixed_by.commit_in_history = (([.fixed_by.commit_short] - $miss) | length > 0)
+         else . end) ]')" || die "sha annotation failed"
+
+# ---- Render the human page from the machine twin (numbers stay in sync) ---
+MD_BODY="$(printf '%s\n' "$STATS_JSON" | jq -r '
+  def pl(n; s): "\(n) \(s)" + (if n == 1 then "" else "s" end);
+  [ "# Membrane receipts",
+    "",
+    "> Auto-generated by `scripts/gen-membrane-receipts.sh` from",
+    "> [`docs/provenance/ledger.jsonl`](../provenance/ledger.jsonl). Every number below is derived",
+    "> from the ledger — nothing is hand-written. The generator refuses to render",
+    "> if `ao provenance verify` reports a broken or tampered hash chain.",
+    "> Machine twin: [`docs/releases/membrane-receipts.json`](../releases/membrane-receipts.json).",
+    "",
+    "Generated: \(.generated_at)",
+    "",
+    "Ledger tip hash: `\(.source.tip_hash)` · chain verified: \(.source.chain_verified) (`\(.source.verifier)`)",
+    "",
+    "## The numbers",
+    "",
+    "| Metric | Value |",
+    "|---|---|",
+    "| Ledger records | \(.totals.ledger_records) |",
+    "| Verdict events (verdict → commit) | \(.totals.verdict_events) |",
+    "| Bead → commit edges | \(.totals.bead_commit_edges) |",
+    "| Distinct beads reviewed | \(.totals.distinct_beads_reviewed) |",
+    "| Distinct commits reviewed | \(.totals.distinct_commits_reviewed) |",
+    "| CONFIRMED verdicts | \(.dispositions.CONFIRMED) |",
+    "| REFUTED verdicts | \(.dispositions.REFUTED) |"
+  ]
+  + [ .dispositions.other | to_entries[] | "| \(.key) verdicts | \(.value) |" ]
+  + [ "| REFUTED-then-fixed arcs (caught defects) | \(.caught_defects.refuted_then_fixed) |",
+      "| REFUTED without a recorded fix | \(.caught_defects.refuted_without_recorded_fix) |",
+      "| Escape-tagged ledger records | \(.escapes.ledger_escape_records) |",
+      "| Time range | \(.time_range.first) → \(.time_range.last) |",
+      "",
+      "A REFUTED-then-fixed arc is a defect the membrane caught: an independent",
+      "reviewer refuted the change on one commit, and a later verdict on a",
+      "subsequent commit for the same bead came back CONFIRMED.",
+      "",
+      "## Escapes",
+      "",
+      (if .escapes.ledger_escape_records == 0
+       then "No escape-tagged records exist in this ledger. Absence of records is evidence, not proof, of absence."
+       else pl(.escapes.ledger_escape_records; "escape-tagged record") +
+            " — surfaced, not hidden:" end)
+    ]
+  + (if .escapes.ledger_escape_records > 0
+     then [ .escapes.entries[] | "- `\(.from_id)` → `\(.to_id)` (\(.relation)) at \(.ts): \(.evidence_ref)" ]
+     else [] end)
+  + [ "",
+      "## Reviewer family mix",
+      "",
+      (if .reviewer_families.recorded_in_ledger
+       then ([ .reviewer_families.mix | to_entries[] | "- \(.key): \(.value)" ] | join("\n"))
+       else "Not recorded in this ledger schema (v1 records carry no reviewer-family field)." end),
+      "",
+      "## Exemplar catches (from REFUTED ledger entries)",
+      ""
+    ]
+  + (if (.exemplar_catches | length) == 0
+     then [ "No REFUTED entries in this ledger." ]
+     else [ .exemplar_catches[]
+            | "- **\(.bead)** — REFUTED on `\(.refuted_commit_short)`"
+              + (if .refuted_commit_in_history then "" else " (commit no longer in current history — predates a rewrite)" end)
+              + " at \(.refuted_ts) (`\(.evidence)`)"
+              + (if .fixed_by != null
+                 then " → fixed: CONFIRMED on `\(.fixed_by.commit_short)`"
+                      + (if .fixed_by.commit_in_history then "" else " (not in current history)" end)
+                      + " at \(.fixed_by.ts)"
+                 else " → no CONFIRMED follow-up recorded in this ledger" end) ]
+     end)
+  + [ "",
+      (if (.unresolvable_shas | length) == 0
+       then "Every short SHA above resolves in this repo; `git show <sha>` reproduces the evidence."
+       else "SHAs not marked otherwise resolve in this repo via `git show <sha>`; marked ones are honest ledger history whose commits were rewritten away." end),
+      "Re-running the generator against the same ledger reproduces this page byte-for-byte",
+      "(modulo the Generated line)." ]
+  | join("\n")
+')" || die "markdown rendering failed"
+
+mkdir -p "$(dirname "$OUT_MD")" "$(dirname "$OUT_JSON")" || die "cannot create output directories"
+TMP_MD="$(mktemp)" || die "mktemp failed for md"
+TMP_JSON="$(mktemp)" || die "mktemp failed for json"
+printf '%s\n' "$MD_BODY" > "$TMP_MD" || die "writing md temp failed"
+printf '%s\n' "$STATS_JSON" > "$TMP_JSON" || die "writing json temp failed"
+mv "$TMP_MD" "$OUT_MD" || die "final move to $OUT_MD failed"
+mv "$TMP_JSON" "$OUT_JSON" || die "final move to $OUT_JSON failed"
+
+echo "gen-membrane-receipts: OK — rendered from $LEDGER_COUNT verified ledger record(s)"
+echo "  md:   $OUT_MD"
+echo "  json: $OUT_JSON"
@@ -0,0 +1,150 @@
+{"schema_version":"agentops-sdlc-provenance.v1","from_id":"ag-8jf97","from_type":"bead","to_id":"feat/ag-8jf97-provenance-ledger","to_type":"commit","relation":"wasGeneratedBy","evidence_ref":"_beads/issues.jsonl#ag-8jf97","trust_tier":"authored","ts":"2026-06-13T23:55:06Z","prev_hash":"","payload_hash":"52b578a2673e9b35c934ede99964c2737d7bf23e8d297a761f2e1a78a25f2527","hash":"ae78526fed7a820d27cdaf7edc219e8e72b913ac0bbcdb1829504ebc1cc4ec7c"}
+{"schema_version":"agentops-sdlc-provenance.v1","from_id":"ag-zqqm","from_type":"bead","to_id":"38368750cccef0f78c1ac99157851c153d428fb6","to_type":"commit","relation":"wasGeneratedBy","evidence_ref":"commit 38368750cccef0f78c1ac99157851c153d428fb6","trust_tier":"inferred","ts":"2026-06-15T10:49:22Z","prev_hash":"ae78526fed7a820d27cdaf7edc219e8e72b913ac0bbcdb1829504ebc1cc4ec7c","payload_hash":"7883ec9bc534840d2d852e7e9d1c20d1c54d8a9a8c1f1027134de7afb0411532","hash":"171e1efb7beb65ea0a21d96477f01084bdd9f621d2627cc1b211e354daabdf03"}
+{"schema_version":"agentops-sdlc-provenance.v1","from_id":"ag-w4r7c","from_type":"bead","to_id":"27a4171e17b876dbd6b5ec85c31af254a0ad58b0","to_type":"commit","relation":"wasGeneratedBy","evidence_ref":"commit 27a4171e17b876dbd6b5ec85c31af254a0ad58b0","trust_tier":"inferred","ts":"2026-06-15T11:15:37Z","prev_hash":"171e1efb7beb65ea0a21d96477f01084bdd9f621d2627cc1b211e354daabdf03","payload_hash":"a74c65afdddfc689a3bf35a0faf210511baede23e92ea122c0eb5d88ef8058f0","hash":"4701a9dc3e9ef9aab9220b3825c62b326cb1540a3ebcac55e642969ceb470290"}
+{"schema_version":"agentops-sdlc-provenance.v1","from_id":"ag-w4r7c","from_type":"bead","to_id":"80b4d3dd1eca84c45a3ac053a646ddf3ac5efb09","to_type":"commit","relation":"wasGeneratedBy","evidence_ref":"commit 80b4d3dd1eca84c45a3ac053a646ddf3ac5efb09","trust_tier":"inferred","ts":"2026-06-15T11:15:37Z","prev_hash":"4701a9dc3e9ef9aab9220b3825c62b326cb1540a3ebcac55e642969ceb470290","payload_hash":"ba9eb4b87b39a9f419bd6cb8d9a84103e9ec24f0a9ed814a9aa31090ab3e26e0","hash":"82424dce8ac82c7c2571710ac00b7f750f27e5e0d63680c187175820427db162"}
+{"schema_version":"agentops-sdlc-provenance.v1","from_id":"ag-fcr6y","from_type":"bead","to_id":"897f6fb4293a2e2d9933d81670ec0e01622556f4","to_type":"commit","relation":"wasGeneratedBy","evidence_ref":"commit 897f6fb4293a2e2d9933d81670ec0e01622556f4","trust_tier":"inferred","ts":"2026-06-15T11:35:21Z","prev_hash":"82424dce8ac82c7c2571710ac00b7f750f27e5e0d63680c187175820427db162","payload_hash":"8bb3f840203aca2f8307ef913a3ab597f28f261835049dbab4a7e65ac0dab9e0","hash":"5d25014fe99832ca77e577ef86087334bc154bfa00724919a0311b45c7961097"}
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@@ -0,0 +1,172 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env bats
+# gen-membrane-receipts.bats — the membrane-receipts generator derives honest,
+# deterministic numbers from a real-shape ledger fixture and REFUSES to render
+# when the hash chain is tampered.
+#
+# Fixture: tests/fixtures/provenance/membrane-receipts-ledger-slice.jsonl is a
+# verbatim 150-line PREFIX of docs/provenance/ledger.jsonl (real persisted
+# shape; a prefix preserves the hash chain from genesis, so `ao provenance
+# verify` passes on it unmodified). Frozen expected values for that slice:
+#   150 records = 127 verdict edges + 23 bead->commit edges
+#   dispositions: 123 CONFIRMED, 3 REFUTED, 1 ESCALATE
+#   REFUTED-then-fixed arcs: 2 (age-standing-pawl-service-ml8.7 refuted on
+#     7c3ff9a and 114b35c, both later CONFIRMED on 0bb3dc3)
+#   REFUTED without recorded fix: 1 (ag-721 on cafef00)
+
+setup_file() {
+  REPO_ROOT="$(cd "$BATS_TEST_DIRNAME/../.." && pwd)"
+  export REPO_ROOT
+  # Resolve an ao binary once for the whole file: PATH first, else build.
+  if [ -z "${AO_BIN:-}" ]; then
+    if command -v ao >/dev/null 2>&1 && ao provenance verify --help >/dev/null 2>&1; then
+      AO_BIN="$(command -v ao)"
+      echo "# using ao from PATH: $AO_BIN" >&3
+    else
+      AO_BIN="$BATS_FILE_TMPDIR/ao"
+      echo "# ao not usable from PATH; building $AO_BIN" >&3
+      (cd "$REPO_ROOT/cli" && go build -o "$AO_BIN" ./cmd/ao)
+    fi
+  fi
+  export AO_BIN
+}
+
+setup() {
+  SCRIPT="$REPO_ROOT/scripts/gen-membrane-receipts.sh"
+  FRESHNESS="$REPO_ROOT/scripts/check-membrane-receipts-freshness.sh"
+  FIXTURE="$REPO_ROOT/tests/fixtures/provenance/membrane-receipts-ledger-slice.jsonl"
+  # Build a fixture "repo root": ao provenance verify resolves the ledger by
+  # walking up for a dir holding docs/ + schemas/.
+  ROOT="$BATS_TEST_TMPDIR/fixroot"
+  mkdir -p "$ROOT/docs/provenance" "$ROOT/schemas"
+  cp "$FIXTURE" "$ROOT/docs/provenance/ledger.jsonl"
+  OUT_MD="$BATS_TEST_TMPDIR/out/membrane-receipts.md"
+  OUT_JSON="$BATS_TEST_TMPDIR/out/membrane-receipts.json"
+}
+
+run_generator() {
+  run env PROVENANCE_LEDGER="$ROOT/docs/provenance/ledger.jsonl" \
+    RECEIPTS_MD="$OUT_MD" RECEIPTS_JSON="$OUT_JSON" AO_BIN="$AO_BIN" \
+    "$SCRIPT"
+  echo "# generator exit=$status" >&3
+  printf '%s\n' "$output" | sed 's/^/# /' >&3
+}
+
+jqv() { jq -r "$1" "$OUT_JSON"; }
+
+@test "generator derives correct counts from the real-shape fixture ledger" {
+  run_generator
+  [ "$status" -eq 0 ]
+  [ -f "$OUT_MD" ]
+  [ -f "$OUT_JSON" ]
+
+  echo "# asserting JSON twin counts against frozen fixture expectations" >&3
+  [ "$(jqv '.totals.ledger_records')" = "150" ]
+  [ "$(jqv '.totals.verdict_events')" = "127" ]
+  [ "$(jqv '.totals.bead_commit_edges')" = "23" ]
+  [ "$(jqv '.dispositions.CONFIRMED')" = "123" ]
+  [ "$(jqv '.dispositions.REFUTED')" = "3" ]
+  [ "$(jqv '.dispositions.other.ESCALATE')" = "1" ]
+  [ "$(jqv '.escapes.ledger_escape_records')" = "0" ]
+  [ "$(jqv '.source.chain_verified')" = "true" ]
+  [ "$(jqv '.time_range.first')" = "2026-06-13T23:55:06Z" ]
+  [ "$(jqv '.time_range.last')" = "2026-06-23T22:21:51Z" ]
+
+  echo "# asserting the human page carries the same derived numbers" >&3
+  grep -Fq '| Ledger records | 150 |' "$OUT_MD"
+  grep -Fq '| Verdict events (verdict → commit) | 127 |' "$OUT_MD"
+  grep -Fq '| CONFIRMED verdicts | 123 |' "$OUT_MD"
+  grep -Fq '| REFUTED verdicts | 3 |' "$OUT_MD"
+  grep -Fq '| ESCALATE verdicts | 1 |' "$OUT_MD"
+  grep -Fq '| Escape-tagged ledger records | 0 |' "$OUT_MD"
+  grep -Eq '^Generated: [0-9]{4}-[0-9]{2}-[0-9]{2}T[0-9:]{8}Z$' "$OUT_MD"
+}
+
+@test "REFUTED-arc detection: fixed arcs counted, unfixed refute surfaced honestly" {
+  run_generator
+  [ "$status" -eq 0 ]
+
+  echo "# arc counts" >&3
+  [ "$(jqv '.caught_defects.refuted_then_fixed')" = "2" ]
+  [ "$(jqv '.caught_defects.refuted_without_recorded_fix')" = "1" ]
+  [ "$(jqv '.exemplar_catches | length')" = "3" ]
+
+  echo "# ml8.7 refutes must both link the later CONFIRMED commit 0bb3dc3" >&3
+  [ "$(jqv '[.caught_defects.arcs[] | select(.bead=="age-standing-pawl-service-ml8.7") | .fixed_by.commit_short] | join(",")')" = "0bb3dc3,0bb3dc3" ]
+
+  echo "# ag-721 has no CONFIRMED follow-up in the slice -> fixed_by null" >&3
+  [ "$(jqv '.caught_defects.arcs[] | select(.bead=="ag-721") | .fixed_by')" = "null" ]
+
+  echo "# exemplar lines link the real short SHAs from the ledger" >&3
+  grep -Fq '`cafef00`' "$OUT_MD"
+  grep -Fq '`7c3ff9a`' "$OUT_MD"
+  grep -Fq 'no CONFIRMED follow-up recorded in this ledger' "$OUT_MD"
+  grep -Fq 'fixed: CONFIRMED on `0bb3dc3`' "$OUT_MD"
+}
+
+@test "generator REFUSES to render when the ledger chain is tampered" {
+  echo "# tampering: flipping a REFUTED disposition to CONFIRMED without re-hashing" >&3
+  sed 's/disposition=REFUTED/disposition=CONFIRMED/' \
+    "$ROOT/docs/provenance/ledger.jsonl" > "$BATS_TEST_TMPDIR/tampered.jsonl"
+  mv "$BATS_TEST_TMPDIR/tampered.jsonl" "$ROOT/docs/provenance/ledger.jsonl"
+
+  run_generator
+  [ "$status" -eq 1 ]
+  [[ "$output" == *"REFUSING to render"* ]]
+  [[ "$output" == *"verification FAILED"* ]]
+
+  echo "# refusal must leave NO rendered artifacts behind" >&3
+  [ ! -f "$OUT_MD" ]
+  [ ! -f "$OUT_JSON" ]
+}
+
+@test "deterministic output: two runs are byte-identical modulo the generated-at line" {
+  run_generator
+  [ "$status" -eq 0 ]
+  cp "$OUT_MD" "$BATS_TEST_TMPDIR/run1.md"
+  cp "$OUT_JSON" "$BATS_TEST_TMPDIR/run1.json"
+
+  sleep 1  # force a different generated-at timestamp
+  run_generator
+  [ "$status" -eq 0 ]
+
+  echo "# timestamps must differ (proves the filter below is load-bearing)" >&3
+  run diff -q "$BATS_TEST_TMPDIR/run1.md" "$OUT_MD"
+[ "$status" -ne 0 ]  # timestamps MUST differ or the modulo-filter below proves nothing
+
+  echo "# md diff ignoring the single Generated line" >&3
+  diff <(grep -v '^Generated: ' "$BATS_TEST_TMPDIR/run1.md") \
+       <(grep -v '^Generated: ' "$OUT_MD")
+
+  echo "# json diff ignoring the generated_at field" >&3
+  diff <(jq 'del(.generated_at)' "$BATS_TEST_TMPDIR/run1.json") \
+       <(jq 'del(.generated_at)' "$OUT_JSON")
+}
+
+@test "freshness check: fresh receipts PASS, stale receipts WARN (exit 0), strict fails" {
+  run_generator
+  [ "$status" -eq 0 ]
+
+  run env PROVENANCE_LEDGER="$ROOT/docs/provenance/ledger.jsonl" RECEIPTS_MD="$OUT_MD" "$FRESHNESS"
+  echo "# fresh: exit=$status output=$output" >&3
+  [ "$status" -eq 0 ]
+  [[ "$output" == *"PASS"* ]]
+
+  echo "# aging the page: Generated 40 days before the ledger tip (tip 2026-06-23)" >&3
+  sed 's/^Generated: .*/Generated: 2026-05-14T00:00:00Z/' "$OUT_MD" > "$BATS_TEST_TMPDIR/stale.md"
+
+  run env PROVENANCE_LEDGER="$ROOT/docs/provenance/ledger.jsonl" RECEIPTS_MD="$BATS_TEST_TMPDIR/stale.md" "$FRESHNESS"
+  echo "# stale: exit=$status output=$output" >&3
+  [ "$status" -eq 0 ]
+  [[ "$output" == *"WARN"* ]]
+
+  run env PROVENANCE_LEDGER="$ROOT/docs/provenance/ledger.jsonl" RECEIPTS_MD="$BATS_TEST_TMPDIR/stale.md" "$FRESHNESS" --strict
+  echo "# stale --strict: exit=$status output=$output" >&3
+  [ "$status" -eq 1 ]
+  [[ "$output" == *"FAIL"* ]]
+
+  echo "# missing page warns (warn-only posture)" >&3
+  run env PROVENANCE_LEDGER="$ROOT/docs/provenance/ledger.jsonl" RECEIPTS_MD="$BATS_TEST_TMPDIR/nope.md" "$FRESHNESS"
+  echo "# missing: exit=$status output=$output" >&3
+  [ "$status" -eq 0 ]
+  [[ "$output" == *"WARN"* ]]
+}